Lesson 3 - When to Hit, When to Stand
The House's edge over a player in Blackjack starts at about 5.5%. By hitting and standing correctly, you can improve your odds by over 3%. Lets review the strategy for when to hit and when to stand. We will not look at splitting pairs, dealing with soft hands (Ace is valued as 11), or doubling down in this session, but rather we will examine each of these other scenarios on their own. In every case where we have omitted the play for 9, 10 or 11 you should Double Down in those scenarios. If you are not comfortable with this or do not have enough funds, you should always hit these.
Start with the basics: Always stand on a hand of 17 or more (excluding soft hands) as a strong hand in Blackjack is any hand of 17+. Above 16, your chances of improving are too small to risk busting, regardless of the dealer's up card. On the flip side, a player can never bust with a hand of 11 or less, so there is always a play to be made. Always hit a hand value of 8 or less. We will discuss 9,10, and 11 in more detail in the lesson on doubling down.
Dealer's Card is an Ace:
this is the worst scenario on the table so lets start here. One thing to consider in Blackjack is that a card with value 10 (10, Jack, Queen, King) is more likely than any other single card value (A through 9). In this case, the dealer has a Blackjack roughly 4/13. Also, the Ace gives the dealer more opportunities to draw cards without busting. The strategy here is to be aggressive and try and get a good hand (17+) as the dealer is likely to have a strong hand. Don't worry about busting and you should hit 16 or less, stand 17+.
When the Dealer's Card is a 10, J, Q, or K:
there is still a 1 in 13 chance the dealer has a blackjack and a 4-in-13 chance of a 20 so a strong hand is required to compete. An 11 gives you a good chance of making a 21 with a hit so we will change our strategy slightly. You still need to risk busting and you should hit 10 or less, hit 12-16 and stand 17+.
When the Dealer's Card is a 7, 8 or 9:
now we have a better chance, as the dealer cannot make a Blackjack. However, it is likely that the dealer will make a strong hand of 17+ so again we must look for a strong hand to compete. However, now both 10 and 11 give you an excellent chance of a winning 20 or 21 so we adjust the strategy slightly again. You will still need to risk busting and you should hit 9 or less, hit 12-16 and stand 17+.
When the Dealer's Card is a 4, 5 or 6:
now we have the dealer in the worst possible position where a bust is very likely. The key is to NEVER bust in this situation and to increase your wager (double down) when prudent (9, 10, or 11). You should hit 8 or less and stand 12+.
When the Dealer's Card is a 3:
the dealer is still in a bad position where a bust is very strong possibility. However, there is a slight advantage to taking a card when you have a 12 even though a bust will occur in 4-of-13 times. You still want to increase your wager (double down) when prudent (9, 10, or 11) and so you should hit 8 or less, hit 12 and stand 13+.
When the Dealer's Card is a 2:
the dealer is still in a bad position but a bust is slightly less likely because the chances of the dealer getting 2 cards totaling 20 is only roughly 10%. As such we will now hit on a 9 instead of doubling so you should hit 9 or less, hit 12 and stand 13+.
Following just these basic rules will reduce the Casino's advantage from 5.5% to roughly 3% and you will find yourself with more winning hands.
Next --> Lesson 4 - Doubling Down
